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Two days to go.

England's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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